Vietnamese rice continues to hold a strong position in the global market, with fragrant and high-quality varieties allowing high export prices to remain without pressure coming from lower-grade Indian rice. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) is now working closely with other ministries and sectors to regulate rice prices during harvest times and to implement strategies to further boost export prices in the near future.

Earlier, from late 2024 to the end of February, domestic paddy and export rice prices experienced a sharp decline. However, in the first half of March, Vietnam’s export rice prices began to rebound slightly while those of other countries continued to fall.

Competitive edge

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), as of March 15, Vietnam’s 5 per cent broken rice was being offered at $392 per ton on the export market, up $3 per ton from the previous week. Meanwhile, 25 per cent broken rice was priced at $364 per ton and 100 per cent broken rice at $307 per ton. In contrast, India’s export rice prices have fallen to their lowest levels in 21 months due to weak demand and fierce competition from other exporting countries. Thai 5 per cent broken rice also fell, by $7-10 per ton compared to the previous weekend, impacted by exchange rate fluctuations.

At a recent conference chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha on rice production and market trends, Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing, and Market Development at the MAE, noted that global rice import demand is expected to remain strong in 2025. The advantages of Vietnam’s fragrant and high-quality rice continue to be favored in premium markets such as the EU, the US, and Japan. However, India’s decision to lift its white rice export ban last September intensified pressure on other exporting countries, particularly in the low-grade white rice segment.

Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Vice President of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association, emphasized that the fall in rice prices during the first two months of this year was not due to oversupply but rather seasonal factors affecting different regions. He stressed the importance of rapidly and accurately disseminating information on production conditions, weather patterns, and domestic and global rice markets to local authorities, businesses, and farmers.

Meanwhile, Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Trung An High-Tech Agriculture JSC, believes there is no need to be concerned about India’s rice exports. He pointed out that 80 per cent of Vietnam’s rice exports are in the high-quality segment, meaning the impact of India’s return to the market, primarily with lower-quality rice, is only temporary.

Moreover, limited domestic supply, expected to fall to 43.14 million tons in 2025 due to saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta, prevents Vietnam from resorting to distressed sales, thereby easing short-term price pressures. Additionally, forecasts indicate that China will need to import 5-6 million tons of rice this year, while the Philippines is expected to maintain imports of 4.5-4.7 million tons. “Rice exports are set to rebound from the second quarter, supporting a recovery in Vietnam’s rice prices,” Mr. Binh predicted.

Mr. Vuong Quoc Nam, Vice Chairman of the Soc Trang Provincial People’s Committee, noted that the winter-spring rice harvest has begun and is expected to peak between late March and early April.

Removing barriers

Analysis and forecasts of global rice demand indicate a positive outlook for Vietnamese rice. Therefore, Deputy Prime Minister Ha has instructed the Ministry of Industry and Trade to urgently assess the domestic rice market. The high-quality rice segment, which accounts for 80 per cent of export volumes, remains stable in pricing as it does not directly compete with India and Thailand in the low-quality rice segment. There is also an urgent need to amend and supplement Decree No. 107/2018/ND-CP on the rice export business, to address current difficulties and obstacles faced by rice exporters.

For the MAE, the Deputy Prime Minister has directed the development of a comprehensive database on rice production and exports. He also urged research initiatives to build an economic model to support State management of the rice market. “The MAE must reconsider and restructure rice production seasons and areas, ensuring proactive irrigation and transport infrastructure to adapt to climate change,” he emphasized. “It must also work with the Ministry of Science and Technology to rapidly develop a national rice branding strategy, secure intellectual property rights, and establish geographical indications for trade promotion and market expansion. Additionally, e-commerce development in the rice industry should be prioritized.”

Regarding financial support, the Deputy Prime Minister urged the State Bank of Vietnam to resolve issues related to loan terms, limits, and conditions. He also requested research into preferential credit packages to help businesses invest in technological applications for rice storage, processing, transportation, and exports.

Source: VnEconomy